No. #95

Overconfidence Effect
- Excessive Confidence in Knowledge

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. This can lead to overly optimistic projections about product development timelines, feature implementations, and user adoption rates.

Read more on Wikipedia

Product example

A project manager might underestimate the time and resources needed to launch a new feature, based on overconfidence in the team’s ability to meet aggressive deadlines.

Empathy tips


Promote Realistic Planning

Encourage realistic planning and time estimation practices.


Awareness and Training

Increase awareness of the overconfidence effect through training sessions.


Seek Diverse Opinions

Seek opinions and estimates from a diverse group of team members to counteract individual overconfidence.


Review and Adjust

Regularly review project progress and adjust plans as necessary to reflect actual versus expected progress.

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