No. #95
Overconfidence Effect
- Excessive Confidence in Knowledge
The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. This can lead to overly optimistic projections about product development timelines, feature implementations, and user adoption rates.
Read more on WikipediaProduct example
A project manager might underestimate the time and resources needed to launch a new feature, based on overconfidence in the team’s ability to meet aggressive deadlines.
Empathy tips
Promote Realistic Planning
Encourage realistic planning and time estimation practices.
Awareness and Training
Increase awareness of the overconfidence effect through training sessions.
Seek Diverse Opinions
Seek opinions and estimates from a diverse group of team members to counteract individual overconfidence.
Review and Adjust
Regularly review project progress and adjust plans as necessary to reflect actual versus expected progress.
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