No. #42

Illusion of Validity
- Overconfidence in Predictions

The illusion of validity is the belief that furtherly gathered information generates a more accurate view of the world, often leading to overconfidence in the predictive power of one's judgments. This can result in overestimating the success of products or features based on preliminary feedback.

Read more on Wikipedia

Product example

After receiving positive initial feedback on a new feature, a team may overestimate its potential success, neglecting the need for further validation.

Empathy tips


Seek Contradictory Evidence

Actively seek information that contradicts preliminary findings.


Broad Validation

Validate predictions with broad, diverse user testing.


Feedback Loops

Establish feedback loops that challenge initial assumptions.


Guard Against Overconfidence

Implement checks and balances to guard against overconfidence in decision-making.

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