No. #141

Conjunction Fallacy
- Overestimating Specific Conditions

The conjunction fallacy occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. This bias can affect decision-making and risk assessment, where more detailed scenarios are incorrectly believed to be more likely than broader ones.

Read more on Wikipedia

Product example

Users might believe that a specific, detailed investment strategy is more likely to succeed than a general approach, even when the opposite is true.

Empathy tips

1

Highlight Statistical Principles

Educate users on statistical principles to help them understand the fallacy.

2

Simplify Decision Frameworks

Simplify decision-making frameworks to avoid presenting overly specific scenarios as more appealing.

3

Rational Choice Facilitation

Facilitate rational choice making by emphasizing the likelihood of broader scenarios over more narrowly defined ones.

4

Critical Thinking Promotion

Promote critical thinking skills to help users evaluate the probability of different scenarios accurately.

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Anna Lundqvist
UX & AI ethics expert driving better products and smarter teams.
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Eddy Salzmann
Design lead crafting seamless products and mentoring design teams.
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Ola Möller
Facilitator helping organisations see the big picture and take action.