No. #141

Conjunction Fallacy
- Overestimating Specific Conditions

The conjunction fallacy occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. This bias can affect decision-making and risk assessment, where more detailed scenarios are incorrectly believed to be more likely than broader ones.

Read more on Wikipedia

Product example

Users might believe that a specific, detailed investment strategy is more likely to succeed than a general approach, even when the opposite is true.

Empathy tips


Highlight Statistical Principles

Educate users on statistical principles to help them understand the fallacy.


Simplify Decision Frameworks

Simplify decision-making frameworks to avoid presenting overly specific scenarios as more appealing.


Rational Choice Facilitation

Facilitate rational choice making by emphasizing the likelihood of broader scenarios over more narrowly defined ones.


Critical Thinking Promotion

Promote critical thinking skills to help users evaluate the probability of different scenarios accurately.

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